Басс Александр Борисович,

Кандидат экономических наук, доцент, доцент кафедры «Денежно-кредитные отношения и монетарная политика»

In 2014 and the first half of 2015 significant deterioration of the main macroeconomic indicators that characterize the sharp deterioration of Russian domestic economy has taken place. In 2014, GDP growth was 0.6% instead of 2.5% for the first half of 2015, the decline in GDP was 3.5% in annual terms, and in the first quarter, the decline was 2.2%, in the second quarter down to 4.6%, respectively. If the first quarter of 2015, the crisis affected primarily non-industrial sectors: trade (-7,6%), financial sector (-3,9%), real estate transactions, business services (3.3 percent) and personal services (down 6.9%), in the II quarter total performance of GDP has been declining due to falling industrial production. [3]

In the second quarter of 2015 the fall in production of the main kinds of economic activity accelerated to 6.4% for the corresponding period last year – a decline of 2.8% in the first quarter. There is a significant reduction of investments in fixed capital. According to Rosstat, investments in fixed capital in Russia in July 2015 decreased by 8.5% compared with July 2014. In June of this year, investments have also decreased by 7.1% and 7.6% in May. Thus, for Jan-July 2015 investment fell by 5.9% compared to the same period of the last year. The Ministry of economic development predicts a drop in investments by 10.6% by the end of 2015. [3]

For the first time in recent years in Russia there was not only the decline of investment in fixed capital, i.e. in the acquisition of long term assets, but also the decline of investment in working capital. The latter circumstance indicates that entrepreneurs are negative about the situation not only in the long term, but also curtail current production. Related to this is the sharp growth of inflation: even according to official estimates of the Ministry of economic development, it will be significantly higher than in 2014, when it was 11.4%. [1] We deal not only with monetary inflation, depending on the costs, but with the reduction. This new factor now needs to be considered.

For comparison: during the crisis of 1998 greater impact on the economy was produced by external factors, such as the movement of capital and price changes. Therefore, the economy was able to quickly begin the recovery growth: that time in the Russian economy production capacity was under-utilised and high real unemployment was faced. Today the situation is quite different: the fixed capital is represented mainly by outdated equipment sufficiently loaded, and unemployment is relatively low. Accordingly, even the current depreciation of the ruble exchange rate (devaluation) does not lead to incentives for increased production.

The second half of 2014 has been bad for the Russian economy’s external environment. There is a drop in the value of exports and value of imports: foreign exchange inflows into the country are reduced. Capital outflow exceeds the surplus in the trade balance. This implies most likely further deterioration of the macroeconomic situation.

In 2014 and the first half of 2015 there was a decrease in real income, 2014th income decreased by 0.8% compared with 2013. The decrease in the level of real income in 2014 was observed for the first time since 1999. Systematically incomes of Russians began to fall from November 2014. In 2015, the decline in real income of households continued. So, for the first half revenues fell by 3.1% and in June by 3.5%.

Along with the decrease of the main macroeconomic indicators in the domestic economy are inflationary processes. Due to the devaluation of the ruble inflation in 2014 reached 11.4% instead of 5 % yoy. [1] Monthly inflation rates year-over-year in the first half of 2015 get more than 15%. During the first half of 2015 inflation reached 8.5% against 4.8% in the first half of 2014.
These indicators characterize the modern condition of the Russian economy as stagflation. Stagflation is a term used in modern macroeconomics to denote a situation in which the economic recession and the depressed state of the economy (stagnation and rising unemployment) is combined with rising prices — inflation. Stagflation is a relatively new economic phenomenon and in some ways paradoxical: up to 70-ies of XX century economic depression was accompanied by a decrease in prices – deflation.

This economic condition is related to the cyclical development of the national economy caused by the new conditions of the reproduction of capital. Currently it is present in several countries with developing economies, such as Brazil.

The specificity of the economic crisis in our country is the combination of recession and inflation, manifested as in suppressed (unmet demand) and in price forms. The destructive link between higher prices and lower manufacturing activity reveals itself in almost all spheres of economic life. What is happening to inflation and stagnation processes reinforce each other. Thus, the decline in production in most sectors was associated with an increase in prices of manufacturers and monopolists, for example, on the material resources for the agricultural sector.
Because of rising prices, largely associated with the increased costs, many companies compensate their financial losses from lower production volumes. At the same time, sustainable inflationary processes lead to inefficient reproduction, basically monopolistic production structures.

It is important to note that stagflation is due to the fundamental structural imbalances in the Russian economy and especially the prevalence of primary industries. Amplification of stagflation is largely due to lower production in the primary industries in the conditions of extremely slow progress in the efficient use of resources, the actual lack of innovation, inefficient pricing mechanism. [2]

High inflation, excessive regulation, the prevalence of state-owned companies and weak protection of property rights – the factors that lead to lower productivity and increase costs in Russia, says the report of the Central Bank. According to the IMF, the average inflation for 2005-2013 was 10.7%, prices grew stronger only in Ukraine and in Venezuela. The share of state-owned companies in certain sectors of the Russian economy reaches 80% and above in UAE (88%) and China (up to 96%). On the ease of doing business, Russia is at the 62nd place in the list of the world Bank.

First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank of Russia Ksenia Yudaeva at the fifth Gaidar Economic Forum in 2014 stated that in Russia at the moment there is stagflation – a reduction of economic growth with a sharp increase in inflation, that it depends on inflation. While inflation is 15%, the key rate cannot be reduced even to the level of 8%. [3]

Therefore, we should begin to deal with inflation. And we have been doing it for 20 years, but the Central Bank never managed to do something radical, to reduce inflation to an acceptable level. We are the only country in the world, except Ukraine, where inflation never fell below 5%. [4]

The main cause of failures of the fight against inflation, in our view, is that we strain a market economy. In the Russian economy, 65% of all property belongs to the state. Share of the budget to GDP is 38%. State monopolies like Gazprom, Rosneft, Russian Railways, Rosatom, Aeroflot, AVTOVAZ, Sberbank, VTB will have priority in obtaining public funds, and receive resources from the national welfare Fund. In the Russian banking system 52% of the total capital of the system belongs to 5 banks, where the controlling stake is in the hands of the state. All this speaks of a very low level of competition in the domestic economy. Therefore, the attempt to reduce inflation-monetary methods, as the Central Bank tries without changing the structure of the economy, is doomed to failure. Moreover, it gives the opposite effect – dramatically reduces the growth rate of the economy.

To beat inflation, you need at least the program for three years by the President of the country, with large diversified measures from the government, Central Bank, state monopolies, and antitrust legislation. You need to set the task to reduce inflation in the first year to 8% in the second – to 5% and in the third year – up to 3%. Then it will be possible to radically reduce the rate of the Central Bank. [4]

Stagflation may take several years, if one would not undertake structural reforms now, in particular of indigenous measures for the transition to forced investment with an annual growth of at least 10%, would not introduce strong incentives for economic growth, would not reduce the key rate to 8% this year and 4% next year, would not take drastic measures to combat inflation, setting a goal – to bring it to at least 4-5% in 2016, and not to engage in serious institutional reforms, removing obstacles from the path of economic growth.

Table 1. Main economic indicators of Russia in 2015-2016

Source: Rosbusinesscounsulting, http://quote.rbc.ru/macro/country/1.shtml

Table 2 Dynamics of the production in Russia, %

Source: CIA World Factbook

The dynamics of the production in Russia from 2010 had a negative trend and diminished from 8,3 percent till -3,5 percent. The dynamics of GDP had a negative trend as well.

Such trends need the application of the anticrisis methods for the economy of Russia. According to the Forecast of socio – economic development of the Russian Federation for 2016 and the planning period of 2017 and 2018, the main priorities of the development of the economy of Russia are the following: increasing the investment attractiveness of the Russian Federation, improving the business climate and creating favorable business environment; balancing the federal budget; preservation of the tax conditions of stability and optimization of tariff regulation; improving the quality of life and investment in human capital; balanced regional development; improving the quality of the functioning of the state institutions authorities; development of the information technology and support of the high-tech sectors of the economy [2].
In the part of the increasing of the investment attractiveness of the Russian Federation, one of the main goals is the improvement of the business climate and creating the favorable business environment in 2016 – 2018. It is important to focus on the implementation of the new business community initiatives, enforcement practices and interaction with the business as a result of the implementation of the “road cards” [2].
The key areas of public health care policy in the period 2016-2018 are: ensuring the adoption of additional measures to improve health; the cost-effectiveness of the health system on the basis of scientific based analysis; development of a cost accounting methodology in health organizations for the medical assistance and payment the cost of the program on the base of the state guarantees for the free medical assistance to the citizens; introduction to the system of clinical guidelines (treatment protocols); acceptance of the “road map” of nuclear medicine centers and
Diagnostics [2].
In the implementation of fiscal policy, the focus will be placed on anti-crisis measures. Russian Government measures in the tax area are as follows: exemptions from corporate income tax for new productions; the increase in initial cost of depreciable property for tax purposes; measures to tax incentives for the development of small businesses through special tax regimes; the patent for the self-employed individuals who have not hired workers; increased revenue threshold for the purposes of payment of advanced payments of the corporate income tax; simplifying calculation and decision to deduct the VAT paid as part of advance payment [2].

For 2017 there are many positive forecasts. One of them is the forecast of the economis of Saxo Bank S. Yakobsen: “The sanctions are likely to be removed, not all of them, but at least part of them, already in 2017, that will have a positive impact on the economy. The lifting of sanctions will accelerate Russia’s GDP growth by 1 percentage point per year, which will allow him to go to zero”. In this he agrees with those same Kudrin [3].