УДК 338

ИНВЕСТИЦИИ В РОССИИ НА СОВРЕМЕННОМ ЭТАПЕ

Данилина Марина Викторовна1, Багратуни Карина Юрьевна1, Литвинов Алексей Николаевич1
1Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации

Аннотация
Статья анализирует состояние инвестиций в России в 2012-2016 гг. и возможности для рисковых инвесторов.

Ключевые слова: инвестиции, потенциальные инвесторы, риск, Россия, экспорт


INVESTMENTS IN RUSSIA AT CURRENT STAGE

Danilina Marina Viktorovna1, Bagratuni Karina Yurievna1, Litvinov Alexei Nikolaevich1
1Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation

Abstract
The article analyzes the state of investments in Russia in 2012-2016 and the opportunities for risky investors.

Keywords: 2016


Рубрика: 08.00.00 ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЕ НАУКИ

Библиографическая ссылка на статью:
Данилина М.В., Багратуни К.Ю., Литвинов А.Н. Investments in Russia at current stage // Современные научные исследования и инновации. 2016. № 4 [Электронный ресурс]. URL: http://web.snauka.ru/issues/2016/04/65905 (дата обращения: 19.11.2016).

In recent years, the situation in the global economy has significantly deteriorated. In 2015 -2016 the international community has faced a number of negative trends: slowing down of the national economy, low oil prices, rapid decline in interest rates, sharp fluctuations in exchange rates. In addition, the situation is complicated by the sanctions regime against Russia, which does not allow to develop the investment sphere, inhibits the development of the economy and society as a whole.

Let’s consider the dynamics of foreign investment in recent years. According to the data of the Federal State Statistics Service, in the period from 2009 to 2013 the volume of foreign investment income changed from about 10 billion US dollars to about 67 billion US dollars [1].

According to the analytical report “Russia in the international movement of capital in 2014 and early2015”, prepared by the Laboratory of the international movement of capital MGIMO (U) MID of Russia, in 2013 the net inflow of foreign investment in Russia was minimal positive in the first half of the year, but in the second half of the year gave way to large negative values​​. This was due to the fact that the reduced inflow overlapped by the increasing outflow of the previously invested ressources.
In turn, this was due to the stagnation of the Russian economy with the prospect of developing into a recession primarily due to the fall in the world oil prices, but also because of Western economic sanctions. The fastest decline was in the sphere of the foreign portfolio investments [2]. In 2014 the situation has not improved. As the result of the imposition of sanctions in the spring of 2014 there was no receipt of additional grants and loans.
What’s about the direct investments in 2014. their volume was US $ 33.502 billion, the volume of the direct investments abroad  was 56.393 billion US dollars, the volume of the direct investments inRussiawas US $ 22.891 billion.
In 2012 the largest amount of foreign investment came from Switzerland, on the second and third place were the Netherlands and Cyprus. In 2013 Switzerland remained in the first place, Cyprus was the second, Great Britain ranked the third.
In 2014 the introduction of the sanctions regime was reflected in the volume of foreign investments . As say the experts of the Laboratory of the international movement of MGIMO (University) MID Russia in the analytical report “Russia in the international movement of capital in 2014 and early2015”, the export of direct investments in 2014 amounted to only $ 56.4 billion against 86.5 billion in 2013, while imports of these investments declined even more radical – from $ 69.2 billion in 2013 to 21.0 billion in 2014 .

Globally, the volume of the direct investment flows in 2014, due to the unfavorable economic situation decreased , but only by 8% . As a result, Russia in 2014 left the top five on both as by the inflow of foreign direct investment ( in 2013 it had the 4th place after the United States, China and the British Virgin Islands ), so as by the exports ( 4th place after the United States , Japan and China ) [ 4 ] .

This situation extended to 2015 and 2016. Reducing of Russia’s investment attractiveness negatively affects the renewal of fixed assets, the competitiveness and development of enterprises and the economy as a whole. At the same time Russia is looking for ways to attract foreign investors in 2016. Despite the highest level of fluctuations in the Russian market in early 2016, the intensification of the export of capital by foreign investors, Russia will not give up hope of attracting investors, which can deal with high risk.

In the period from 21 to 27 January 2016 the total net cash outflows from funds investing in Russian stocks reached $113.4 million. A week earlier, the figure was $91.8 million according to the review of Emerging Portfolio Fund Research. At the end of 2016, according to Central Bank forecasts, the outflow of capital will be about 60 billion rubles ( US $ 800 million at the current rate). The net outflow of capital in 2015, according to preliminary estimates of the Bank of Russia amounted to $ 56.9 billion. This is almost three times less than in 2014, when the figure was $ 153 billion.
According to the study EY «Investment attractiveness of European countries – 2015» (European Attractiveness Survey 2015) in 2015, the investment attractiveness of Russia continued to decline: only 11 % of investors indicated that they are ready to invest in the region, that represents an increase of 8 percentage points lower than in 2014.
The difficult situation is in the oil industry. The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects that the decline in investments in the oil sector will continue in 2016. This was stated by Executive Director of the IEA Fatih Birol in the frame of the G20 events [5]. General Secretary of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Abdullah Al – Badri said that this year the decline in investments in the oil industry on a global scale was about $ 650 billion [6] .

Despite the negative trends, some investors are in no hurry to leave Russia. So, Elbrus Capital Investment Fund over the past year increased the volume of Russian assets in the portfolio from 8 to 60 %. When investors rush to sell assets, resulting from the volatility  – it represents “a good way to make money,” said CEO and founder of Khmelnitsky in conversation with Bloomberg. In 2015, the Fund was able to achieve a yield of 11 %.

Another example – one of the largest private companies in China Fosun.

In the fall of 2015 the company announced the launch of Russia’s investment platform Fosun Eurasia It sees the increased investment attractiveness of Russian assets associated with the devaluation of the ruble [7].

The examples of successful activity of investors indicate the presence of opportunities for investment inRussiain spite of the difficult economic and political situation.


References
  1. Федеральная служба государственной статистики, http://www.gks.ru/wps/wcm/connect/rosstat_main/rosstat/ru/statistics/enterprise/investment/foreign/#
  2. Аналитический доклад Россия в международном движении капитала в 2014-начале 2015 годов Лаборатории международного движения капитала МГИМО (У) МИД России, http://mgimo.ru/files2/y04_2015/270866/Russia-MDK-2014.pdf
  3. Центральный Банк Российской Федерации, http://www.cbr.ru/statistics/?Prtid=svsВ
  4. IEA спрогнозировало рекордное снижение инвестиций в нефтяную отрасль, 15 ноября 2015, https://lenta.ru/news/2015/11/15/neft_invest/
  5. Инвестиции в нефтяную отрасль сократятся на $650 млрд в 2015 году, 06 октября 2015, | dp.ru , http://www.dp.ru/a/2015/10/06/Investicii_v_neftjanuju_otr/
  6. Елена Платонова Иностранцев в России ждут Карлсон и Терминатор. Россия заманивает на свои рынки рискованных иностранцев, 02.02.2016, http://www.gazeta.ru/business/2016/02/01/8051933.shtml
  7. Некрасов А.С., Данилина М.В. ВАЛЮТНЫЕ ПОСТУПЛЕНИЯ ОТ ЭКСПОРТА РОССИЙСКИХ УГЛЕВОДОРОДОВ: ФАКТОРЫ И ЗАВИСИМОСТИ // Проблемы прогнозирования. 2004. № 5. С. 27-33.
  8. Данилина М.В. ФУНКЦИОНИРОВАНИЕ ГОСУДАРСТВЕННОГО НЕФТЯНОГО СТАБИЛИЗАЦИОННОГО ФОНДА (ОПЫТ НОРВЕГИИ) // Проблемы прогнозирования. 2004. № 4. С. 59-69.
  9. Данилина М.В. СОВРЕМЕННАЯ СИТУАЦИЯ В ИНВЕСТИЦИОННОЙ СФЕРЕ В РОССИИ // Экономический анализ: теория и практика. 2004. № 7.
  10. Данилина М.В. ИЗМЕНЕНИЯ В СТРАТЕГИИ ФОРМИРОВАНИЯ И ИСПОЛЬЗОВАНИЯ РЕЗЕРВНОГО ФОНДА И ФОНДА НАЦИОНАЛЬНОГО БЛАГОСОСТОЯНИЯ // Финансы и кредит. 2008. № 10 (298). С. 37-53.
  11. Данилина М.В. НЕФТЕГАЗОВЫЙ КОМПЛЕКС РОССИИ – ВЕДУЩИЙ ИСТОЧНИК ФОРМИРОВАНИЯ ДОХОДОВ ФЕДЕРАЛЬНОГО БЮДЖЕТА // Региональная экономика: теория и практика. 2007. № 17. С. 30-41.


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