УДК 338.24.01

ИСПОЛЬЗОВАНИЕ МОДЕЛИ ГОРДОНА ДЛЯ ОПРЕДЕЛЕНИЯ СТОИМОСТИ ПРЕДПРИЯТИЯ ХИМИЧЕСКОЙ ПРОМЫШЛЕННОСТИ

Курилова Анастасия Александровна
Тольяттинский государственный университет
доктор экономических наук, доцент, профессор кафедры «Финансы и кредит»

Аннотация
Целью исследования является проведение оценки стоимости предприятий химической промышленности. В исследовании применяются следующие методы: диалектический подход к познанию социальных явлений, позволяющий проанализировать динамику изменения инвестиционного климата региона в его историческом развитии и функционировании. Также в работе применялись общенаучные методы исследования (диалектика, анализ, синтез, системность, комплексность), так и другие специальные приемы и процедуры. Результаты оценки показывают, что Самарская область является регионом, в котором достаточно химическая промышленность занимает ведущие позиции. Наиболее крупными предприятиями химической промышленности являются ОАО «Тольяттиазот», АО «Промсинтез» и ОАО «КуйбышевАзот». Оценка стоимости предприятий позволила выявить, что наибольшая стоимость у предприятия «ТольяттиАзот», далее следует «КуйбышевАзот» и «Промсинтез». Практическая значимость исследования заключается в том, что основные положения и выводы работы могут быть использованы для проведения оценки стоимости предприятий российской химической промышленности.

Ключевые слова: дисконтирование денежных потоков., инвестиционная стоимость компании, кадастровая стоимость компании, ликвидационная стоимость компании, метод капитализации будущего дохода, нефтехимическая промышленность, оценка стоимости, рыночная стоимость компании, химическая промышленность


USING THE GORDON MODEL FOR DETERMINING THE VALUE OF THE CHEMICAL INDUSTRY

Kurilova Anastasia Alexandrovna
Togliatti State University
Ph.D., professor of «Finance and Credit»

Abstract
The aim of this study is to assess the value of chemical industry. The study used the following methods: dialectical approach to the knowledge of social phenomena, which allows to analyze the dynamics of change in the region's investment climate and its historical development and function. It is also used in the general scientific research methods (dialectics, analysis, synthesis, system, complexity), and other special techniques and procedures. Evaluation results show that the Samara region is a region that has enough chemical industry occupies a leading position. The largest enterprises of chemical industry are JSC "Togliatti", JSC "PROMSINTEZ" and JSC "Kuibyshev". Valuation of companies allowed to reveal that the greatest value of the enterprise "TogliattiAzot", followed by "Kuibyshev" and "PROMSINTEZ". The practical significance of the study lies in the fact that the main provisions and conclusions of the work can be used to assess the cost of the enterprises of the Russian chemical industry.

Рубрика: 08.00.00 ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЕ НАУКИ

Библиографическая ссылка на статью:
Курилова А.А. Using the Gordon model for determining the value of the chemical industry // Современные научные исследования и инновации. 2016. № 12 [Электронный ресурс]. URL: http://web.snauka.ru/issues/2016/12/75621 (дата обращения: 29.09.2017).

Samara Region is one of the most important components of Russia with a fairly diversified economy. At the same time the chemical industry in the Samara region plays a very important role. Petrochemical industry Samara region is the basis of the region’s economy and includes oil extraction, oil refining, chemical industry and the plastics industry for the production. The largest enterprises of petrochemical industry are JSC “Togliatti”, JSC “PROMSINTEZ” and JSC “Kuibyshev”. Let us compare the economic activities of these enterprises in the dynamics of their financial and economic activities, as well as an assessment of their cost.

The greatest revenue has “Togliatti”, then in terms of revenue leader “Kuibyshevazot” and “PROMSINTEZ” takes place in the lower rating training of volumes on the implementation. If we talk about the relative performance of the activities of these companies are as follows [1, c.390].
Revenue largest sales volume of enterprise – “Togliattiazot” showed significant growth rates over the period 2013-2014, it increased to 28.5%, for 2014-2015 – by 30.6% due to growth in sales volumes. It should be noted that most of the revenue the company receives from the sale of products in foreign markets – 74.6%. The greatest revenue growth for the period 2014-2015, showed “KuibyshevAzot ‘revenue growth from sales of the Company amounted to 35.8%. At the same time this company revenue growth of volumes was secured both by internal and by external market.
The smallest increase in revenue indicator showed “PROMSINTEZ”. Its sales revenue increased – for years 2013-2014 – 419 thousand rubles.. or 0.02%, for the years 2014-2015 – to 534 692 thousand rubles.. or by 26.2%. The reason for revenue growth sales growth.
Thus, from the above analysis, we can conclude that in spite of the highest absolute volume of revenue from sales of products, the leader of the relative increase in revenue is a “KuybyvshevAzot”.
Consider other factors that characterize the activities of other parties Samara petrochemical industry. One such indicator is the cost of the petrochemical industry.
Cost of “TogliattiAzot ‘sales increased at a slower pace compared with revenues, the simple cost was in 2013-2014 years, and 14.3% in 2014-2015 to 13.1%.
The relative growth rate “KuibyshevAzot” cost in 2014-2015 amounted to 16%. The rate of growth “PROMSINTEZ” cost in the years 2013-2014 amounted to 0.9%, and in 2014-2015 to 29.3%. Thus, “PROMSINTEZ” is the leader in terms of growth of production costs which also turned out to be higher than the revenue growth, what to say about the extensive nature of the enterprise development.
The most efficient company in terms of leadership in growth ratio of cost and revenue is “TogliattiAzot” [2, c.235].
Let us analyze the dynamics of such an important component of the company’s expenses as the fixed costs that are not directly related to the volume of production and can significantly negative impact on the financial activities of enterprises hozyaystvennnoy petrochemical industry.
The greatest amount of administrative expenses in absolute value at “Togliatti”, and the amount of administrative expenses “KuibyshevAzot” and “PROMSINTEZ” is at a comparable level.
With regard to relative values, the largest increase of administrative expenses for the period from 2014-2015 year is “TogliattiAzot” with the figure was 28.3%. The growth of administrative expenses “KuibyshevAzot” and “PROMSINTEZ” is insignificant in this period and is less than 4%.
Thus, the company which carries out the least efficient management of fixed costs is the “TogliattiAzot”. This makes it necessary to carry out continuous monitoring of constant expenses of the enterprise in order to reduce the volume of fixed costs and creating barriers to their continued growth [3, 25].
It should be noted that the share of fixed costs in the enterprise revenue has not changed and remained the same 4.8%.

For the final picture of the dynamics changes of absolute indicators of enterprises of the Samara region will assess indicators profit before tax EBIT.
The analysis showed that the greatest amount of profit before taxation at “Togliatti” at least “PROMSINTEZ” and “KuibyshevAzot” occupies the second place in terms of the profits of all enterprises of petrochemical industry.
It should be noted that the profit “TogliattiAzot” constantly growing steadily, that of “PROMSINTEZ” and “KuibyshevAzot” showed mixed trends – in 2014 there was a falling index compared with 2013 year.
For “TolyattiAzota” profit before tax for the years 2013-2014 has increased by 62.1% and 44.9% for the period 2014-2015. Relative earnings growth “KuibyshevAzot” were negative for the period of 2013-2014 years, while for the period from 2014-2015, income increased by 106.5% in relative terms. Similar dynamics is observed in “PROMSINTEZ” growth in profit before tax of the enterprise have been negative in 2013-2014 and in 2014-2015 the profit growth rate was more than 150%.
A comparative assessment of other indicators reflecting the efficiency of petrochemical plants of the Samara region [4, c.150].
The evaluation can conclude the following – all indicators of profitability leads “TogliattiAzot”, “Kuibyshev” is in second place and “PROMSINTEZ” ranked third.
It should be noted a constant growth rate of profitability throughout the period analyzed from companies TogliattiAzot “and” Kuibyshev “.
It should also be noted that the dynamics of changes in the values ​​of assets profitability for enterprises, “Kuibyshev” and “Togliatti” to the end of the analyzed period increased: from 8.9% to 11.3% in “KuibyshevAzot”; from 22.4% to 32.4% at “Togliatti”. Asset growth profitability on net profit is due to the excess of the growth rate of net profit enterprises on the growth rate of assets. The indicator of profitability “PROMSINTEZ” assets in 2014 decreased (from 2.2% to 0.9%) due to lower net income increased due to growth in net profit, amounting to 1.8% in 2015.
The analysis suggests the following conclusions.
The highest value for the Samara Region has a “TogliattiAzot”, the second highest value is “KuibyshevAzot” of greatest interest to the valuation effect possible invaluable Russian stock market.
In general, the dynamics of indicators reflecting financial and economic activity is positive, the revenue and profit of the petrochemical industry of the Samara region are rising, profits are also growing enterprises [5, c.480].
Despite the successful financial and economic activities of enterprises individual crises of the Samara region observed the petrochemical industry, such as the increase of fixed costs, the decline of profits before tax, which makes it necessary to address those factors when assessing the value of these companies.
Carry out assessment “KuibyshevAzot ‘value with methodology for determining the price of the company use the data of the first chapter of the work. The analysis of the data based on the results of financial and economic activity of the enterprise has revealed a significant increase in indicators such as revenue, net income and profitability of business enterprises.
Therefore, evaluation of all options of the enterprise value of the most effective is to use the income approach, which allows to objectively determine this figure as the present value of future income [6, c.5].
As part of this assessment methodology using the discounted cash flow method, as the application of this method will pinpoint
Before using this technique the company’s valuation is necessary to predict future revenue stream in a certain period, in this case three years.
The average annual growth in revenue as a percentage of 25.5%.

In order to implement forecasting total costs, the analysis of the composition and size of business costs, based on data for the year 2005-2015, as well as define their share in the company’s revenue. The analysis showed that the specific proportion of the costs of revenue was 83.49%.

Analyze the costs “KuibyshevAzot” reflected in the line “Selling expenses” under this heading reflects the paid wages, including accrued, lease payments, expenses related to the cost of labor, taking into account charges, expenses related to the amortization of the equipment, costs associated with payment services to other organizations [ 7, c.178]. According to estimates, the average share of commercial expenses relative to revenue for the 2013-2015 years. It amounted to 9.2%.

Let us analyze the “KuibyshevAzot” expenses, provided that the proportion of production costs and commercial expenses in the forecast and terminal period will remain unchanged.

Make calculation of cash flow will hold subject to the following conditions:
- An indicator of the income tax rate is 20%;
- The share of costs in revenue of 83.49%, the share of commercial spending in revenues of 9.2%;
- Interest expense and interest income will remain at the level of the average for 2014 and 2015 year.
The average value of interest income for 2014 and 2015 will be (498,806 + 230,850) = 2 364 828 thousand rubles..
The average value of interest payable for 2014 and 2015 will be (1,260,635 + 889,855): 2 = 1075245 thousand rubles..
Assume that the other expenses of the company’s net profit is not provided, and the cash flow in this case is identical to the net profit of the enterprise.
Also, for calculating the value of the cash flow necessary to determine the discount rate, which indicates the amount of income that investors expect on their investments. To determine its value is necessary to determine the risk-free rate of return for risk-free investments in the territory of the Russian Federation.
As the risk-free rate of return, you can use the value of zero-coupon yield, the calculation of which the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange on the basis of the results of trading on the OFZ technique developed in conjunction with the Bank of Russia. BFL is a debt instrument which produces the RF Ministry of Finance and which also has the highest credit rating among the liabilities that are traded on the Russian financial market. On 19.10.2016 the value of the zero-coupon risk free rate of return is 8.89%. With this in mind, you can take the value of zero-coupon risk free rate of return for the entry level for the calculation of the discount rate [8, c.13].
The indicator reflects the size of the discount rate of profit, which need to provide investors with investment. The calculation of the discount rate to be applied for the purpose of cash flow discounted by the method of cumulative construction.
In order to use this method, you must determine the risk-free rate, for which we take the value of zero-coupon risk free rate of return amounting to 8.89%. Given that this obligation applies to the territory of Russia in rubles and foreign currency risk of the country have already been priced in the rate of return.
To calculate the discount rate we use the value of the beta coefficient for the chemical industry information, which can be obtained on the basis of site Damodoran line. This ratio is 1.17.
Also, for the calculation of the discount rate will take into account the quality of the administrative board of the enterprise, the company’s value, the quality of the organizational structure of the company, the level of diversification of production and product areas, customer base, profitability and predictability of operations. For the purpose of calculating the discount rates also take into account the specific risks associated with the company [9, c.25].

Given that the costs to depreciation costs and other expenses from net income “KuibyshevAzot” does not provide cash flow corresponds to net profit “KuibyshevAzot”.
Summing up the rate of return, taking into account, the beta coefficient, as well as the elements forming the discount rate, we get a discount rate, which is 13.3%.
Define the value “KuibyshevAzot” in the post-forecast period using the model of Gordon. Cash flow in the post-forecast period – 4 374 060 000 rubles, the discount rate -.. 26.3%, long-term growth rate – 25.5%.
FV = 374.06 4 (1 + 0.255) / (0.263 – 0.255) = 686 180 660 000 rubles..
Residual value “KuibyshevAzot” is 686 RUB 180,660,000..
Enterprise value consists of the present value of cash flows and the present value in the post-forecast period. To calculate the present value of the discounted cash flows applicable procedure.Thus, the value of the company determined using the discounted cash flow methodology within the income approach, it is 281 032 290 000 rubles..
For comparison, “KuibyshevAzot” balance sheet total amounts to RUB 47 962 200 000.. Thus, we obtained the company’s value based on a discounted cash flow methodology for more than 6 times higher than the currency of the balance of the organization.
Compare the resulting figure to the value of the company in the financial market. According to the quarterly report for the 2nd quarter of 2016 the market capitalization of “KuibyshevAzot” is 20 225 million. Rubles. Thus, it is obvious that the company has significant future potential for development and growth in the market capitalization of the company.
Carried out in this manner assessment “Togliatti” value allowed to reveal that the value of the company determined using the discounted cash flow methodology within the income approach is
459 200, 28 mln. Rub., While the book value of RUR 78 369 130 000.. For “Promsiteza” corresponding figures were 6 670 980 000 rubles.. and 1 111 830 000 rubles.. respectively.
Thus, on the basis of the assessment it can be concluded ranking of petrochemical companies of the Samara region on their value. In the first place the cost is the company “TogliattiAzot”, the second “Kuibyshev” and the third “PROMSINTEZ”. Let us analyze the pricing factors petrochemical company.

Factors affecting the growth of prices include indicators such as net profit, revenue, the amount of dividends, the value of cash flow, the size of the company balance sheet total, the value of the net assets, as well as other indicators. Determination of a particular set of parameters is dependent on the available information, the impact of these factors, indicators on economic activity of the company, as well as the choice of the evaluator.
When choosing only one indicator of the pricing formed by the regression model relates to the one-factor model.
In order to create a model depending on the value of the organization in accordance with the market conditions on a number of indicators of economic activities of the organization applies the methodology of correlation and regression analysis. If further research for productive variable will take the value of the target firm market.
Regression model to calculate the value of the evaluated companies construct, analyzed on the basis of the available information on similar companies in the industry dependent on the market value of the different pricing performance of companies (cost factors). Correlation analysis as a technique makes it possible to determine the highest bond strength and bond strength indicator (strong, weak), the nature of communication – direct or reverse. The data obtained from the correlation analysis of the correlation coefficient is expressed by index R, which is a value between -1 and +1 and can be used for further planning algorithm parameter calculate regression equations.
Communication Indicator between the two measures is strong enough, if the exponent of the absolute value of the correlation is greater than 0.7 and a weak, if not more than 0.4. If the correlation coefficient index value is zero, the link between the two measures is absent. It should be noted that an objective assessment of the correlation is only possible when using a regression model that uses only a linear dependence [10, c.165].
In order to generate the regression model applied value of the market capitalization of companies analogues according on the results at the end of 2016, according to the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange, as well as the financial statements of companies whose list obtained by sampling according to “Interfax” – disclosure server.
The dependence of the price of such values ​​in revenue performance, profits and assets. An analysis of selected data to carry out with the help of an Excel spreadsheet.
Assessment and analysis of correlation coefficients with respect to each of the factors taken into account. From the analysis shows that the income has the greatest impact on business profits. In this case the correlation coefficient is equal to 0.99. It should be noted, and high dependence on the price of the enterprise total assets of the business (0.97) and the relationship of earnings and assets (0.94). To form the base model using the relationship between the market value of the company and profit.

We form the necessary equation regression models analyzed. As a result of analysis on the basis of Excel «regression» table packet is received the following table the values of a coefficients a and b.

Based on this analysis, for the petrochemical industry can generate the regression equation of the following form:
Y = 13,2x – 2259520
Thus, the analysis leads to the conclusion that in order to increase the value of the petrochemical industry is necessary to recommend measures which aimed at the growth of the net profit of the enterprise.

Статья подготовлена в рамках работы над исследовательским проектом «К 50-летию ВАЗа: Влияние автомобилизации на социально-экономическое развитие Поволжья», поддержанным грантом Российского гуманитарного научного фонда № 16-12-63003 по результатам регионального конкурса «Волжские земли в истории и культуре России – 2016, Самарская область».


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